The Liberals picked up the most seats in Ontario on the road to a minority government in Monday’s election, but saw their grip on the province begin to slip.
With the majority of Ontario’s ridings counted on Tuesday afternoon, the Liberals looked set to take 69 and the Conservatives were ahead in 53.
If the results hold, then it would mean the Liberals losing ridings compared to 2021 and the Conservatives gaining.
It would also represent a complete wipeout in Ontario for the NDP.
Canada has 343 ridings being contested in the 2025 General election, 122 — or 36 per cent — of them are located in Ontario.
Support for the Liberals remained strong in Toronto, where the party traditionally performs well. Across the city’s suburbs, however, the Conservatives appeared to make minor inroads in an area which had voted red in 2015, 2019 and 2021.
In Brampton West, for example, Conservative candidate Amarjeet Gill defeated Kamal Khera, who has represented the area for the Liberals since 2015.
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In Ottawa, too, the Liberals looked set to record a series of traditional wins. The rural parts of Ontario, which tend to vote Conservative, continued that trend, returning Tory representatives to Parliament Hill.
The two top party leaders were also running in Ontario seats in the Ottawa area.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney was projected to have won his riding of Nepean. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, however, lost his riding of Carleton to a Liberal challenge. He has represented the area since 2004.
A collapse in NDP support appeared to play a part in reshaping Ontario from the province which handed the Liberals a comfortable win in 2021 to a knife-edge race.
In 2021, the Liberals won 78 ridings and the Conservatives won 37. The NDP won five and the Greens won in Kitchener Centre.
Those ridings were redistributed between the Conservatives and Liberals, with the latter also potentially losing areas it won last time round. Ridings the NDP had won in Hamilton appear to be leaning toward Liberal candidates, while southwestern Ontario ridings held by the party may be lending their votes to the Tories.
By Tuesday afternoon, the Conservatives had 43 per cent of the Ontario popular vote, compared to 57 per cent for the Liberals. The NDP had five per cent and the Greens just one per cent.
The electoral map has been updated since the 2021 election, with five new ridings added across the country. Ontario has seen borders of some ridings shift and one new seat created, which can affect how vote per centage translates into seats.
Advance polling data from Elections Canada shows 2.8 million people voted early in Ontario. The numbers represent a 560,000-plus increase in advance poll turnout in 2021.
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