Airbus said in its most recent market outlook that despite short term uncertainties, in the long-term, passenger traffic will grow by 3.6% annually, driven by global GDP (+2.5%), urban populations (+1.2 billion) and an increase of 1.5 billion in the global middle class who represent the demographic most likely to fly.
This growth requires a need for around 43,400 new passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years. Some 34,250 will be typically single-aisle and 9,170 will be typically widebodies. Around 44% of these new deliveries (18,930) will replace less fuel efficient previous generation models.
A key benefit of aviation is to connect people and enable commerce, even in times of uncertainties, not only domestically but further afield. This is leading to some emerging flows and evolving markets. Overall, domestic India traffic growth (+8.9%) is the world’s highest, followed by emerging Asia to China (+8.5%) and Middle East to emerging Asia (5.3%). These evolving markets and new city pairings are being served by Airbus’ full range of aircraft. As these routes grow in passenger volume, the size of aircraft will follow. This upsizing is a clear Airbus advantage where commonality between the A320, A330 and A350 families means airlines can operate mixed single aisle and widebody fleets using crews with multi type ratings.
A doubling in the global in-service fleet above 49,000 aircraft by 2044 will generate a need for new pilots, technicians, cabin crews and create careers throughout the aviation eco-system. Huge opportunities will exist in aircraft maintenance and efficient operations as part of the sector’s sustainability drive.
End to end supply chain management, as spare parts availability is a key focus, and the growing availability of USM (Used Serviceable Material) are offering cost-effective solutions to improve fleet availability.
Embraer estimates 10,500 orders for new aircraft by 2044
Embraer’s most recent Market Outlook 2025, its annual 20-year forecast for commercial aircraft deliveries in the sub-150-seat category estimates 10,500 orders for new jets and turboprops through 2044. It also presents analyses of global influences and trends in seven world regions that impact the demand for new aircraft. Because of its growing prominence in commercial aviation, statistics for China are detailed separately in this year’s Market Outlook for the first time. The document also analyses demand for cargo aircraft, including a forecast for passenger-to-freighter conversions.
The overall forecast for the number of new sub-150-seat aircraft remains almost unchanged from Embraer’s previous estimate. Arjan Meijer, Embraer President and CEO of Commercial Aviation, attributes the consistency of the estimate to the longevity of social, supply chain, and geopolitical trends Embraer identified during the pandemic.
“Five years after the onset of the pandemic, many of the structural changes it triggered have proven to be quite long lasting. In our first post-pandemic Market Outlook, we highlighted the transition from globalisation to a more polarised geopolitical outlook. Today, as countries and regions pursue greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access will continue to grow. We believe mixed fleets that combine small and large narrowbody aircraft are essential for that long-term growth. They provide the versatility needed to better match capacity with demand, expand networks, and support national and regional development goals.”
Embraer highlights potential for intra-African connectivity
Embraer has published a report on the untapped potential to enhance intra-African air connectivity. The comprehensive study underscores the critical role of improved air travel in driving economic growth and development across the African continent and was unveiled today at the AviaDev conference in Zanzibar. Despite Africa accounting for 18% of the global population, it contributes less than 3% to global GDP and only 2.1% to global air passenger and cargo traffic, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). This disparity is fundamental in the continent’s limited intra-regional air connectivity, a significant bottleneck in Africa’s economic and aviation development.
Africa’s GDP is expected to grow at 3.8% per year over the next 20 years, with Revenue Passenger Kilometre (RPK) growth projected at 4.4% per year, surpassing growth rates in Europe and North America. Although Africa has the world’s lowest propensity to travel, its potential for growth is immense. Developing intra-regional connectivity will be a key driver of this growth.
Currently, 64% of intra-African markets are served with seven weekly flights or less, indicating a significant opportunity to enhance connectivity. Many African origin-and-destination (O&D) markets remain underserved or entirely unserved by direct flights, forcing some passengers to connect through distant hubs, sometimes as far away as Europe or the Middle East.
Embraer’s report identifies 45 intra-African routes not currently served with a direct flight, that could sustain multiple weekly direct flights, supporting regional economic growth. The top 10 routes could sustain at least three direct flights per week with a 100-seat aircraft. The report also utilises an intra-Africa stimulation curve developed by Embraer, based on the last 10 year’s traffic data, which estimates expected passenger numbers when opening a direct flight. The data shows that the stimulation factor varies according to the market size. For example, a market with 50 passengers before the opening of a direct flight will see a 40% increase in demand. For a smaller market such as 20 passengers, the opening of a direct flight would result in an 80% increase in demand. Efficient hub operations and increased frequencies are also crucial for improving connectivity quality, offering passengers more flexibility and convenience.
Right-sized aircraft, such as Embraer’s E2, are essential for developing connectivity in fragmented markets. These aircraft offer lower trip costs and increased range, making them ideal for both short and medium-haul routes, and excel at opening and sustaining and growing new routes.
Stephan Hannemann, Senior Vice President Sales & Marketing, Head of Region Middle East and Africa at Embraer Commercial Aviation said, “This report, and the data behind it, highlights the significant potential for new routes and improved hub connectivity across Africa. By deploying the right aircraft and enhancing intra-regional air travel, Africa can unlock new economic opportunities, improve the overall travel experience for millions of passengers, and unlock the continent’s economic potential.”
“AviaDev Africa is dedicated to supporting the development of air connectivity to, from and within Sub-Saharan Africa. Embraer’s new report illustrates the vast opportunities already on offer to deliver better intra-African connectivity and ensure a robust and resilient future” says Jon Howell, CEO and Founder, AviaDev.
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