Last season at this time in Ukraine we were struggling with both a war and the weather.

Low rainfall developed into a drought which reduced total potato production in Ukraine by around 18%. This led to shortages and almost a doubling of prices. Fortunately our favoured selected position near the Carpathian mountains gave us more rainfall and only a small drop in our yields. Low rainfall also affected much of Europe increasing potato prices and supply, leading to higher potato starch prices. This spring as a result potato plantings have risen markedly in Europe, not so much in Ukraine, and after a dry period during the main planting period, a decent amount of rainfall has fallen.

This may lead to a larger supply and a consequent effect on prices. We shall see what the oncoming summer brings.

Wheat production in Ukraine is forecast down by around 8% due to plantings and lack of rain. Wheat prices are still low due to US crop condition and welcome rain for other producers.

Almost 20% of the arable land, in the East, cannot be cropped due to, not only mines and craters, but also contamination with toxic materials and other pollution. Over 160.000 hectares of land in Kharkiv region alone have been damaged by the war. Donetsk and Kherson soils are much more damaged.

It can also be chemical, such as the contamination of soil with heavy metals and rocket fuel. Wageningen University has recently published research showing it will take $20bn to remediate these soils back to productive capacity. This is likely a significant underestimate and will take well over a decade to remediate.

This soil health issue will have a long term effect on global grain markets.

Soil scientists call the cratering and mixing of the soil by explosive munitions Bombturbation. This term was first used by US geographers to describe the impact of craters on the landscape of Verdun after World War I. Explosive munitions such as missiles and artillery shells contaminate the soil with chemicals and heavy metals.

They also mix up soil layers bringing up less fertile soil layers to the surface and burying fertile topsoil. Recent surveys in Eastern Ukraine have shown sharply increased levels of soil pollution with metals like cadmium, copper and zinc, as well as fuel products. Of course valuable farming infrastructure has also been destroyed in these areas, roads, ports, grain storage and handling facilities too. Yet another war crime by Russia depriving the world of greater food security and lower prices, and not just in the short term.

In other better news Ukrainian farmland abandoned after the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster is again fit for agriculture, a new University of Portsmouth study reveals. In the aftermath of the nuclear accident, vast swathes of northern Ukraine were designated as too hazardous for farming.

Radiation levels in the region have declined significantly due to radioactive decay and erosion of surface soils.

Yet, there has been no re-classification of the abandoned lands since zoning criteria were put in place in 1991.Researchers assessed around 100 hectares of land in the Zhytomyr region for contamination levels and predicted the uptake of radioactive substances by common crops such as potatoes, cereals, maize, and sunflower. By analysing soil samples and measuring external gamma radiation, they confirmed that the effective radiation dose to agricultural workers was well below Ukraine’s national safety threshold.

The researchers found that the radiation amount was significantly lower than background radiation levels experienced naturally all over the world. Good News.

Massive drone and missile attacks continue on civilian targets as I write. The response by Ukraine destroying 15% of Russia’s nuclear capability on the ground was as audacious as it was skilled. Talking to our friend and colleague the Colonel of a Ukrainian drone regiment recently he told us that they are now operating drones tethered by fibre optic ‘wires’ up to 12km away from the operator at the other end of the ‘wire’.

This avoids GPS jamming by the Russians.

He told us that if your drone software is more than three weeks old then you are dead in the 24km drone policed Frontline killing zone. Manpower is becoming a significant factor at the front and mission rotations are often 5-7x the optimal with front line troops only receiving bottled water and food by drone. Our Colonel was at pains to highlight that Ukrainian forces can teach Western forces an immense amount about drone warfare, as they learn every day.

Earlier this month I talked at the Ukrainian Grain Conference in Kyiv on the challenges and support required for Frontline farmers and the opportunities and challenges for agriculture with potential EU accession. There are many lessons to learn from the accessions of Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. One point I made forcibly was that the negative effect of Brexit on UK farmers and food producers has been disastrous with food exports to EU down over 30% and increased bureaucracy killing smaller producers.

Our food trade deficit has risen by 61% to £42bn since we left the EU.

Over generous SFI schemes in England have hit grain production and we import over a third of our beef. Not to mention the existential effect of support payment reduction for most English farmers. My own view is that without Brexit the current IHT fiasco would not be happening, as Reeves would have much greater headroom with a stronger Brexitless economy.

A ‘European’ Army doesn’t look such a daft idea now, though it was a major plank in UKIP’s false reasons for exiting.

Visiting a large, for Austria, 40ha organic farm recently I learnt that 10 farmers per day are leaving the industry due to impossible returns, regulation and bureaucracy. Premiums for organic milk have dropped to 7% post Covid. Not enough to compensate for more expensive organic feed and fertilisers and a regulation to buy only Austrian or German organic feed. The Austrian Government like to herald Austria as the Kings of organic farming within the EU, but organic sales are dropping as consumers vote with their wallets, just like the UK.

Will RegenAg earn a premium or just accept lower returns too? Hopefully Starmer’s new UK/EU Deal will be the start of greater alignment and less bureaucracy for exporters at the very least. Whatever, Ukraine must maintain it’s competitiveness in international grain markets.

One topic of discussion in Kyiv was that of tariffs.

So let’s talk tariffs, as the on off TACO President’s (Trump Always Chickens Out) circus continues with talks between China and US in London this week. Talks which have achieved little. One would have thought the Oval Office would be the ideal place to sort out an egg shortage? How could new and potential tariffs affect US and Scottish farmers?

These effects are global, witness the massive replacement of US soya exports by Brazilian beans, but also hits locally. If US stand by their Chinese tariffs Europe will be flooded by cheaper manufactured goods, originally destined for US shores. Reduced export opportunities to US from Scotland will follow if the US imposes tariffs on agricultural products from the UK (including Scotland). It could make Scottish goods like whisky, cheese, lamb, and seed potatoes more expensive for American buyers. That could lead to not only lower sales in the US market but increased competition from countries not subject to the tariffs, as well as displacement at home from tariffed producers elsewhere.

Surplus domestic production might also reduce prices through oversupply. Disruption of Scottish supply chains would occur if tariffs on whisky rose. Longer term uncertainty, with the US no longer being a reliable trade or defence partner, would reduce investment both on farm and in food processing leading to reduced employment. This coupled with increased oil and gas prices following Israeli attacks on Iran create a bleak picture.

Iran exports 5% of global oil but 26% passes through the Straits of Hormuz choke point.

What about US farmers? US tariffs can affect US farmers in several complex and often unintended ways. The Law of Unintended Consequences. While tariffs are usually aimed at protecting domestic industries, for farmers, the effects can be mixed or even negative. If there are retaliatory Ag tariffs then US exports can be hit. China, the EU, and others have hit US soybeans, pork, and dairy with tariffs in past trade disputes. This year US tariffs have opened up the Chinese soya market to Brazilian producers sitting on a record, low priced soya crop, as US beans become relatively more expensive.

Once a market is lost to a competitor (like Brazil or Australia), it’s hard to win it back. Even if tariffs are lifted later, buyers may have switched suppliers permanently.

This is the first time in human history when if you say ‘he’s a feckin’ idiot’, then 98% of the world’s population and millions of penguins will know exactly who you are talking about! Brexit was the worst economic decision in over a century.

US – ‘hold my coat’.